Demo · Keep score
A grade stays confidently wrong
until the system joins it to what happened
A grade is a prediction. The loop only closes when the system checks it against what happened.
Master toggle
Keep score is on. The system joins and recalibrates.
Incoming metric · generic signal profile
Grade B, score 80, band passed, safe to act.
The metric arrives graded. Nudge it if you like, then act on it.
The loop
Where the outcomes land
0 roundsDecision verdict sets the row, inference verdict sets the column. Good outcomes on top, bad on the bottom.
Calibration readout
Claimed safe
Actually held
joined from the outcomes, converging toward 40%
The grade the system now gives
falling toward honesty as the loop closes
Run the loop with keep-score on and watch this gap shrink.
The contrast
Keep score on, and the claimed 80 falls to meet reality. Keep score off, and it stays 80 forever while reality stays 40.
The grade is the same number in both runs. The only difference is whether the system joins it to the outcome and recalibrates. Without the join, a confident grade never finds out it was wrong, so it stays wrong, and you keep acting on it.
Read the full article
Keeping Score